Home Gaming This could be the biggest risk in the industry?

This could be the biggest risk in the industry?

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According to Cliff Bleszinski there is a new IP that is being released soon that will require a minimum of 10 million units sold before it can even begin to make a profit.

According to a tweet he sent out:

 

ontheedge

That’s pretty insane and if it really is true it’s one of the biggest risks a publisher in the gaming industry has taken to date. Unless of course the accountants are using some of their creative accounting again and are taking into consideration that they need to pay greedy shareholders massive payouts.

So which game could this possibly be?

There are some massive new titles in development such as Watchdogs, The Division, Beyond: Two Souls and more. But seriously could any of those really hope to crack the 10 million mark with that bar only being broken by Call of Duty, Mario titles, Gran Turismo and Grand Theft Auto.

I can see two possible titles that could require such monumental sales; TitanFall or Destiny.

TitanFall is the most likely to break the 10 million mark with the game being born out of the record smashing Modern Warfare series but would TitanFall really cost over $250 million to make? It’s not really breaking that many new boundaries and if that is the case then they have possibly put too much investment in the title.

I personally think it’s going to be Destiny, which is attempting to bring the first real MMO first person shooter to the world with the biggest game-worlds ever seen, a persistent online universe and those incredible exciting public events.

It’s a risk as they are relying on over 10 million people becoming enticed by a game mechanic that they are struggling to really explain and with technology that may not be able to handle the success if it arrives. Are they really going to have a persistent world with 10 million inhabitants? Is that even possible?

Last Updated: July 10, 2013

64 Comments

  1. Ultimo_Cleric N7

    July 10, 2013 at 09:52

    If so, best they launch on all platforms ASAP. Geez, that is a HUUUGE risk to take on a new IP. Wowzers.
    But……this game…… Its going to be a game changer. I can feel it.
    EDIT: This IS coming from Cliffy B though…..

    Reply

    • RinceWind

      July 10, 2013 at 09:58

      lol and agree

      Reply

    • Lardus

      July 10, 2013 at 14:24

      I do not know what to listen to when Cliffy B talks about. Paint drying comes to mind as more relevant to me. He just likes attention.

      Reply

  2. RinceWind

    July 10, 2013 at 09:57

    Massive risk., I also thought of Destiny. But then again, if they are going for a more ‘Eve online’ approach they will do it, if not immediately, then after a few years.

    Reply

  3. string_slinger...

    July 10, 2013 at 09:59

    Might also be GTA V…

    Reply

    • Ultimo_Cleric N7

      July 10, 2013 at 10:01

      Nope, New IP mate

      Reply

    • CaptainNemo42

      July 10, 2013 at 10:04

      Not a new IP.

      Reply

  4. HvR

    July 10, 2013 at 10:01

    Why, how can one game flop with 5 million units sold while another game with similar game styles world size better graphics be a huge success at 3 million units.

    Where is all the money going? Have Luthulli House bought the managing stake in all big game publishing and development companies?

    Reply

    • RinceWind

      July 10, 2013 at 10:06

      I think what you are talking about has to do with cross platform games. The 3 mil that TloU sold was only on one console, Tomb Raider was a multiplat. But yes, I totally agree, they set their expectations so damn high it’s near impossible to be met.

      Reply

      • HvR

        July 10, 2013 at 10:08

        But surely the majority of the budget goes to level character and story design and not platform porting.

        Reply

        • RinceWind

          July 10, 2013 at 10:13

          I meant that is they can only ship 5 mil to 3 platforms that is not enough, not when you can ship a game like TloU to just one platform and still ship 3 million units plus.

          Reply

    • Verrayne

      July 10, 2013 at 15:33

      First party titles are cheaper than third party most of the time.

      Also A lot of code and art assets never get used in game or are scrapped during development which add to the costs.

      Reply

  5. Trevor Davies

    July 10, 2013 at 10:07

    That’s just insane. 10 mil copies to break even at a minimum selling price of $60 (and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 70-80 because it’s a “premium” game) means a cost of $600 mil.

    Reply

    • Ultimo_Cleric N7

      July 10, 2013 at 10:10

      Unless the game is going to be more expensive…..keep in mind that this is an MMO and we havent heard anything about micro transactions. And Subscription fees are dying out too, they wont want to chance adding that extra cost if they need to sell 10mil copies. Therefore…..big cost for the game…..

      Reply

      • RinceWind

        July 10, 2013 at 10:14

        Very true

        Reply

      • Trevor Davies

        July 10, 2013 at 10:39

        Yes, there’s probably a lot of cost built in for servers & stuff. It’s just a really eye-popping number. I’d be really interested to know how much actual development cost.

        Reply

    • Weanerdog

      July 10, 2013 at 10:37

      Remember that the selling price includes the mark-up from the retailer so looking at 50% mark-up look at closer to $400

      Reply

      • Trevor Davies

        July 10, 2013 at 10:39

        Even that is O_O

        Reply

  6. Tbone187

    July 10, 2013 at 10:08

    What about that new Tom Clancy title…?

    Reply

    • Matthew Holliday

      July 10, 2013 at 10:18

      Dont think it counts as a new IP.
      There are several existing games in the existing franchise: Ghost recon & rainbow six etc.
      The new one is just new stuff from the same IP

      Reply

    • Eric Viljoen

      July 10, 2013 at 10:37

      The Division? Was mentioned in the article

      Reply

      • Tbone187

        July 10, 2013 at 10:41

        Oops,,, didn’t see that…good eye

        Reply

  7. Sir Rants-a-Lot Llew

    July 10, 2013 at 10:17

    Too much. way too much

    Reply

  8. Umar Kiiroi Senk?

    July 10, 2013 at 10:23

    I think it’s Destiny that game is massive and I think that it’s taking the biggest risk but 10 million ….. holy moly ….No thank you

    Reply

  9. Slade Boender

    July 10, 2013 at 10:29

    knowing cliff and his hate for all things Playstation, its probably Destiny, doubt he’d be hating on his old chums at MS. The silly twat. (< this comment is choc full of ignorance btw)

    Reply

  10. Umar Kiiroi Senk?

    July 10, 2013 at 10:29

    Meanwhile in Japan, FROMSOFTWARE will be popping champagne when DS 2 sells over 2 million

    Reply

    • Trevor Davies

      July 10, 2013 at 10:41

      That & Witcher 3 are probably the 2 RPGs I’m most excited about.

      Reply

      • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

        July 10, 2013 at 10:55

        And FF 15, those 3 are gonna rock the boat, Witcher looks stunning

        Reply

        • Argentil

          July 10, 2013 at 11:12

          I agree, and it’s not like those games (The Witcher 3 & Dark Souls 2) have massive budgets, but they are not lesser games for it. It’s clear that these big companies are spending their budgets on promotion, mistakes, and likely embezzlement again.

          Reply

          • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

            July 10, 2013 at 11:29

            Lol indeed . most money goes to the last one 🙁

          • Argentil

            July 10, 2013 at 11:37

            Remember the over-the-top game launches by Activision? With celebrity appearances?

          • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

            July 10, 2013 at 11:40

            lol Usherrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr….yes because that is needed to sell a game

          • Argentil

            July 10, 2013 at 11:45

            If you wanna scream YEAA-AH. Let me know and I’ll take you there. Get you going like
            ooh babeh-babeh, ooh babeh-babeh x2

            Yes, I was gobsmacked when he did that. I was waiting for the context of his appearance to make sense.

          • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

            July 10, 2013 at 11:59

            BIG Lolz. it’s Usher, he doesn’t need a reason to appear. I generally don’t get this type of advertising … I guess you wana appeal more to the general public but essentially it’s the gamers taht are gonna buy it. Even Uncharted 3 with Harrison Ford I found it to be unnecessary

          • Argentil

            July 10, 2013 at 12:01

            That was Japanese marketing if I recall correctly. Japan go nuts for celebrity endorsements, and they have an obsession with Mr. Ford. Getting indie to play the game was a fun little marketing scheme.

          • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

            July 10, 2013 at 12:03

            Well that is true, celebrity endorsed cooldrinks are a norm in Japan, well I just wish things would go back to a simpler time though … I’m afraid we will no longer get those experimental and niche games like Valkyria Chronicles and Folklore

          • Argentil

            July 10, 2013 at 12:07

            Well, there were 3 Valkyria Chronicles games, but it would have been nicer if they had been PS3 games instead. I loved VC, what a great game.
            As for Folklore, it was alright, and I probably would have enjoyed it more if I’d played it as a launch title. It does have a special atmosphere. I must finish it sometime. I wouldn’t call it experimental though.

          • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

            July 10, 2013 at 12:10

            I loved VC 1 and 2, unfortunately 3 ….. 🙁 and I’m playing Folklore now and I find it is such an amazing game actually, intriguing and quite different. It’s not experimental yes, but it was bold for it’s time really with it’s weird story and characters and unorthodox setting

  11. Trevor Davies

    July 10, 2013 at 10:33

    Borderlands 2 PSA: Just spotted this for Shift codes for new gear.

    http://www.gearboxsoftware.com/community/articles/1060/borderlands-2-bunkers-badasses-shift-loot

    Reply

  12. Eric Viljoen

    July 10, 2013 at 10:35

    “Call of Duty, Mario titles, Gran Turismo and Grand Theft Auto” And World Of Warcraft? Which makes the Destiny argument pretty valid.

    Reply

  13. Weanerdog

    July 10, 2013 at 10:39

    You see this what happens when they hire a quality control and testing department, cost spiral. Easier to just let it ship let gamers test it and and patch the issues.

    Reply

    • Tbone187

      July 10, 2013 at 10:45

      You’re joking right?

      Reply

    • Sageville

      July 10, 2013 at 10:46

      Ya, neh, totally working for Colonial Marines.

      Reply

    • Verrayne

      July 10, 2013 at 15:35

      I’m still testing Sim City. They even let me fill in surveys now a days.

      Reply

  14. Argentil

    July 10, 2013 at 10:39

    I think it’s TitanFall. People are already sick of hearing about the game because the promotion is oversaturated, and it’s not even close to releasing. If it keeps up until release, then that would be a lot of money wasted on promoting the game.

    Reply

    • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

      July 10, 2013 at 10:41

      Hmm I would think that but Destiny needs to have much more maintenance and provides a much bigger world.

      Reply

      • Argentil

        July 10, 2013 at 10:54

        It could be either game, but I think it’s TitanFall. If resources were spent as such:
        TitanFall – 40% game development costs, 60% advertising
        Destiny – 70% game development costs, 30% advertising
        their budgets would look really similar imo.

        Reply

        • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

          July 10, 2013 at 10:59

          Ahh I see, basing it on advertising. but then again look at the other games that had huge advertising expenses but never required so much profit, TitanFall isn’t as huge of a game either

          Reply

  15. Sageville

    July 10, 2013 at 10:45

    I am soo looking forward to Destiny, I’ve been looking for a game like think since the old WoW days. Finally it’s here. I just hope if they are over-extending themselves that the demand and awesomeness of the game keeps the company afloat.

    Oh, and fuck cliffy B.

    Reply

  16. FoxOneZA - X-Therminator

    July 10, 2013 at 11:02

    Impossible when majority of gamers don’t have internetz and Cat Tube… *cough cough*

    Reply

  17. TiMsTeR1033

    July 10, 2013 at 11:46

    Well if thats the case, then they better be prepared to NOT break even…… with Destiny

    Reply

    • Argentil

      July 10, 2013 at 12:03

      Well, even if it debuts at a loss, as long as it sells well, it would be worth incurring the cost to set up a new blockbuster franchise.

      Reply

  18. Jonah Cash

    July 10, 2013 at 12:07

    It’s this games DESTINY to make that sort of player base play for years and years to come!!!
    What….. What…. Oh come on that was clever!!!!
    Remember guys didn’t they say something about the game being there for 10 years or something?

    Reply

  19. Jim Lenoir (Banana Jim)

    July 10, 2013 at 12:16

    Cliffy B, gaming’s resident oxygen thief!

    Reply

  20. OVG

    July 10, 2013 at 12:42

    Lets hope 10million consoles are even sold in the first 2 years for this to even happen. Remember it took 2 years before 20million 360s were even sold.

    Reply

    • WARLORD VIII

      July 25, 2013 at 20:35

      Well both Titanfall and Destiny will be on this gen too. Titanfall will be on Xbox 360, Xbox one, and the PC. Destiny will be on PS3, PS4, Xbox one, and Xbox 360.

      Reply

  21. Jim Lenoir (Banana Jim)

    July 10, 2013 at 13:10

    I’m placing my bets on Destiny as the most likely object of Cliffy B’s taunts.

    Reply

  22. Aussious

    July 10, 2013 at 13:32

    Bullshit!

    Reply

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