This could be the biggest risk in the industry? 
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Gavin Mannion
July 10, 2013 at 9:45 am

According to Cliff Bleszinski there is a new IP that is being released soon that will require a minimum of 10 million units sold before it can even begin to make a profit.

According to a tweet he sent out:

 

ontheedge

That’s pretty insane and if it really is true it’s one of the biggest risks a publisher in the gaming industry has taken to date. Unless of course the accountants are using some of their creative accounting again and are taking into consideration that they need to pay greedy shareholders massive payouts.

So which game could this possibly be?

There are some massive new titles in development such as Watchdogs, The Division, Beyond: Two Souls and more. But seriously could any of those really hope to crack the 10 million mark with that bar only being broken by Call of Duty, Mario titles, Gran Turismo and Grand Theft Auto.

I can see two possible titles that could require such monumental sales; TitanFall or Destiny.

TitanFall is the most likely to break the 10 million mark with the game being born out of the record smashing Modern Warfare series but would TitanFall really cost over $250 million to make? It’s not really breaking that many new boundaries and if that is the case then they have possibly put too much investment in the title.

I personally think it’s going to be Destiny, which is attempting to bring the first real MMO first person shooter to the world with the biggest game-worlds ever seen, a persistent online universe and those incredible exciting public events.

It’s a risk as they are relying on over 10 million people becoming enticed by a game mechanic that they are struggling to really explain and with technology that may not be able to handle the success if it arrives. Are they really going to have a persistent world with 10 million inhabitants? Is that even possible?

I'm cranky, arrogant and ever so amazingly annoying but when you get to know me you will also realise I'm honest and incredibly good at describing myself... now pass me that beer

  • Ultimo_Cleric N7

    If so, best they launch on all platforms ASAP. Geez, that is a HUUUGE risk to take on a new IP. Wowzers.
    But……this game…… Its going to be a game changer. I can feel it.
    EDIT: This IS coming from Cliffy B though…..

    • RinceWind

      lol and agree

    • Lardus

      I do not know what to listen to when Cliffy B talks about. Paint drying comes to mind as more relevant to me. He just likes attention.

  • RinceWind

    Massive risk., I also thought of Destiny. But then again, if they are going for a more ‘Eve online’ approach they will do it, if not immediately, then after a few years.

  • Hammersteyn

    The same was said about Tomb Raider. Tell Cliff to go sign that XBOX petition and to shut his cock hole.

    • RinceWind

      HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! :)

    • John Ambitious

      ..

    • SwaarMetaal

      Thanks Hammer, jy het sopas my dag gemaak!!!!

      Comment of the week!!!

    • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

      The truth is strong with this comment

    • Admiral Chief Groot Wors

      “cock hole”?

      Genugtig

  • string_slinger…

    Might also be GTA V…

    • Ultimo_Cleric N7

      Nope, New IP mate

    • CaptainNemo42

      Not a new IP.

  • HvR

    Why, how can one game flop with 5 million units sold while another game with similar game styles world size better graphics be a huge success at 3 million units.

    Where is all the money going? Have Luthulli House bought the managing stake in all big game publishing and development companies?

    • RinceWind

      I think what you are talking about has to do with cross platform games. The 3 mil that TloU sold was only on one console, Tomb Raider was a multiplat. But yes, I totally agree, they set their expectations so damn high it’s near impossible to be met.

      • HvR

        But surely the majority of the budget goes to level character and story design and not platform porting.

        • RinceWind

          I meant that is they can only ship 5 mil to 3 platforms that is not enough, not when you can ship a game like TloU to just one platform and still ship 3 million units plus.

    • Verrayne

      First party titles are cheaper than third party most of the time.

      Also A lot of code and art assets never get used in game or are scrapped during development which add to the costs.

  • Trevor Davies

    That’s just insane. 10 mil copies to break even at a minimum selling price of $60 (and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 70-80 because it’s a “premium” game) means a cost of $600 mil.

    • Ultimo_Cleric N7

      Unless the game is going to be more expensive…..keep in mind that this is an MMO and we havent heard anything about micro transactions. And Subscription fees are dying out too, they wont want to chance adding that extra cost if they need to sell 10mil copies. Therefore…..big cost for the game…..

      • RinceWind

        Very true

      • Trevor Davies

        Yes, there’s probably a lot of cost built in for servers & stuff. It’s just a really eye-popping number. I’d be really interested to know how much actual development cost.

    • Weanerdog

      Remember that the selling price includes the mark-up from the retailer so looking at 50% mark-up look at closer to $400

      • Trevor Davies

        Even that is O_O

  • Tbone187

    What about that new Tom Clancy title…?

    • Matthew Holliday

      Dont think it counts as a new IP.
      There are several existing games in the existing franchise: Ghost recon & rainbow six etc.
      The new one is just new stuff from the same IP

    • Eric Viljoen

      The Division? Was mentioned in the article

      • Tbone187

        Oops,,, didn’t see that…good eye

  • Sir Rants-a-Lot Llew

    Too much. way too much

  • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

    I think it’s Destiny that game is massive and I think that it’s taking the biggest risk but 10 million ….. holy moly ….No thank you

  • Slade Boender

    knowing cliff and his hate for all things Playstation, its probably Destiny, doubt he’d be hating on his old chums at MS. The silly twat. (< this comment is choc full of ignorance btw)

  • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

    Meanwhile in Japan, FROMSOFTWARE will be popping champagne when DS 2 sells over 2 million

    • Trevor Davies

      That & Witcher 3 are probably the 2 RPGs I’m most excited about.

      • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

        And FF 15, those 3 are gonna rock the boat, Witcher looks stunning

        • Argentil

          I agree, and it’s not like those games (The Witcher 3 & Dark Souls 2) have massive budgets, but they are not lesser games for it. It’s clear that these big companies are spending their budgets on promotion, mistakes, and likely embezzlement again.

          • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

            Lol indeed . most money goes to the last one :(

          • Argentil

            Remember the over-the-top game launches by Activision? With celebrity appearances?

          • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

            lol Usherrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr….yes because that is needed to sell a game

          • Argentil

            If you wanna scream YEAA-AH. Let me know and I’ll take you there. Get you going like
            ooh babeh-babeh, ooh babeh-babeh x2

            Yes, I was gobsmacked when he did that. I was waiting for the context of his appearance to make sense.

          • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

            BIG Lolz. it’s Usher, he doesn’t need a reason to appear. I generally don’t get this type of advertising … I guess you wana appeal more to the general public but essentially it’s the gamers taht are gonna buy it. Even Uncharted 3 with Harrison Ford I found it to be unnecessary

          • Argentil

            That was Japanese marketing if I recall correctly. Japan go nuts for celebrity endorsements, and they have an obsession with Mr. Ford. Getting indie to play the game was a fun little marketing scheme.

          • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

            Well that is true, celebrity endorsed cooldrinks are a norm in Japan, well I just wish things would go back to a simpler time though … I’m afraid we will no longer get those experimental and niche games like Valkyria Chronicles and Folklore

          • Argentil

            Well, there were 3 Valkyria Chronicles games, but it would have been nicer if they had been PS3 games instead. I loved VC, what a great game.
            As for Folklore, it was alright, and I probably would have enjoyed it more if I’d played it as a launch title. It does have a special atmosphere. I must finish it sometime. I wouldn’t call it experimental though.

          • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

            I loved VC 1 and 2, unfortunately 3 ….. :( and I’m playing Folklore now and I find it is such an amazing game actually, intriguing and quite different. It’s not experimental yes, but it was bold for it’s time really with it’s weird story and characters and unorthodox setting

  • Trevor Davies

    Borderlands 2 PSA: Just spotted this for Shift codes for new gear.

    http://www.gearboxsoftware.com/community/articles/1060/borderlands-2-bunkers-badasses-shift-loot

  • Eric Viljoen

    “Call of Duty, Mario titles, Gran Turismo and Grand Theft Auto” And World Of Warcraft? Which makes the Destiny argument pretty valid.

  • Weanerdog

    You see this what happens when they hire a quality control and testing department, cost spiral. Easier to just let it ship let gamers test it and and patch the issues.

    • Tbone187

      You’re joking right?

    • Sageville

      Ya, neh, totally working for Colonial Marines.

    • Verrayne

      I’m still testing Sim City. They even let me fill in surveys now a days.

  • Argentil

    I think it’s TitanFall. People are already sick of hearing about the game because the promotion is oversaturated, and it’s not even close to releasing. If it keeps up until release, then that would be a lot of money wasted on promoting the game.

    • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

      Hmm I would think that but Destiny needs to have much more maintenance and provides a much bigger world.

      • Argentil

        It could be either game, but I think it’s TitanFall. If resources were spent as such:
        TitanFall – 40% game development costs, 60% advertising
        Destiny – 70% game development costs, 30% advertising
        their budgets would look really similar imo.

        • Umar Kiiroi Senk?

          Ahh I see, basing it on advertising. but then again look at the other games that had huge advertising expenses but never required so much profit, TitanFall isn’t as huge of a game either

  • Sageville

    I am soo looking forward to Destiny, I’ve been looking for a game like think since the old WoW days. Finally it’s here. I just hope if they are over-extending themselves that the demand and awesomeness of the game keeps the company afloat.

    Oh, and fuck cliffy B.

  • FoxOneZA – X-Therminator

    Impossible when majority of gamers don’t have internetz and Cat Tube… *cough cough*

  • TiMsTeR1033

    Well if thats the case, then they better be prepared to NOT break even…… with Destiny

    • Argentil

      Well, even if it debuts at a loss, as long as it sells well, it would be worth incurring the cost to set up a new blockbuster franchise.

  • Jonah Cash

    It’s this games DESTINY to make that sort of player base play for years and years to come!!!
    What….. What…. Oh come on that was clever!!!!
    Remember guys didn’t they say something about the game being there for 10 years or something?

  • Jim Lenoir (Banana Jim)

    Cliffy B, gaming’s resident oxygen thief!

  • Darren Peach

    Yeah, The whole Idea of a Triple A title has snuk up and ingrained itself into the games we love and play. CALL OF DUTY !!!!!!!!!!!!! HALO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FORZA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!DEAD SPACE!!!!!!!!!!. Point is, We love em.

  • http://lazygamer.net/ OVG

    Lets hope 10million consoles are even sold in the first 2 years for this to even happen. Remember it took 2 years before 20million 360s were even sold.

    • WARLORD VIII

      Well both Titanfall and Destiny will be on this gen too. Titanfall will be on Xbox 360, Xbox one, and the PC. Destiny will be on PS3, PS4, Xbox one, and Xbox 360.

  • Jim Lenoir (Banana Jim)

    I’m placing my bets on Destiny as the most likely object of Cliffy B’s taunts.

  • Aussious

    Bullshit!