Home Gaming The International 5 prize pool prediction and comparison

The International 5 prize pool prediction and comparison

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Image1

Valve’s annual compendium, a concept introduced prior to the The International 2, has seen growth within competitive prize pools like none other. The concept has been visited in other Valve-sanctioned tournaments such as Counter-Strike, but nothing compares to Dota 2.

The money tree is what we call a compendium and for a measly $10 this little booklet offers rewards based on amount of money you spend. The International 2 in 2013 saw a prize pool of over $2.5 million, being blown completely out the water by The International 4 in 2014 with a prize pool upwards of $10 million. This year Valve stepped it up, offering more incentive and at the moment, with just under two weeks left, the prize pool is sitting pretty at $16.6 million.

Let’s compare

As mentioned above Valve have added a wealth of new cosmetic content and this has brought in the big spenders. Resident statistician and Dota 2 fanatic Matthew “Cyborgmatt” Bailey has once again kept a prize pool tracker where we’re able to compare and predict the final prize pool.

Graph1

As seen by the graph where the 2014 prize pool hit a steady slope, the comparison shows a small bump around day 35. This is because of the release of new content, which had been promised ages ago, and new players purchasing compendiums to reap the rewards. From day 35 to 50 we see a similar plateau, but once again new content brings about a small bump and with a similar trend we may event hit the $17 million mark.

Graph2

The next graph shows the amount of money spent on specific days, which is an interesting trend as we see days relating to “pay day” spiking even higher since the release of the compendium. The same correlation can be drawn to the first graph where days of “Immortal Treasure” releases brought about a spike in compendium activity. This proves once again the power of crowd funding (in a sense) and the fantastic model that Valve have built.

Will this revive Dota 2?

I must preface this with the fact that this is my personal opinion, but I’m sure some might feel the same way. It’s no secret that Dota 2 has fallen off the top of the eSports list in the past few years. Many personalities have stated that the people at the top burnt out and couldn’t keep up with the pace and hype, but that’s not really the real issue here.

While millions of people still pump funds into tournaments such as The International, the small tournaments haven’t lived up to their former hype. They have been replaced by an influx of Counter-Strike: GO tournaments and the ever-dominant League of Legends LCS. Although the International, in my opinion, is still the biggest eSports event of the year, the question is will this revive the game?

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Last Updated: July 16, 2015

86 Comments

  1. Ottokie

    July 16, 2015 at 09:03

    That’s a lot of zero’s behind a dollar sign…

    Reply

  2. Hammersteyn

    July 16, 2015 at 09:06

    The top graph kinda resembles the worm from last nights cricket game :/

    Reply

    • Alien Emperor Trevor

      July 16, 2015 at 09:12

      We don’t talk about such things.

      Reply

      • RinceThis

        July 16, 2015 at 09:50

        What things…

        Reply

        • Alien Emperor Trevor

          July 16, 2015 at 10:10

          NOTHING!

          Reply

    • Admiral Chief in Skellige

      July 16, 2015 at 09:14

      Last night proved again that the Proteas are NOT worthy of my Admira(l)tion

      Reply

    • BurninZ

      July 16, 2015 at 10:16

      Yip, seems so.

      Reply

    • SargonTheBatpandaOfTI5

      July 19, 2015 at 11:05

      What is cricket, precious?

      Reply

      • Hammersteyn

        July 20, 2015 at 08:04

        XD

        Reply

  3. RinceThis

    July 16, 2015 at 09:37

    What did you say son? 0_O

    Reply

  4. Matthew Holliday

    July 16, 2015 at 09:46

    game isnt exactly dead, but the formula is getting a bit stale.

    even with the changing metagame, i find it a struggle to not fall asleep when watching a cast.

    Reply

    • CongoKyle

      July 16, 2015 at 14:37

      Like I said, it’s my personal feelings. I burnt out casting Dota 2 because there was so much hype around it and I pushed to stay ahead. The game eventually became extremely stale (as you mentioned) but TI always revives the passion.

      Reply

      • Matthew Holliday

        July 16, 2015 at 15:28

        TI revives the enthusiasm somewhat, but not the passion.
        the ESL final series is pretty much the only dota ive watched since TI5, and only watched enough of the qualifiers to get the points ticked off for my compendium.

        going into this years TI, i know how EG and Secret are doing and thats about it, dont know half the teams that are going to be there.

        Reply

  5. Guild

    July 16, 2015 at 09:46

    Lately I have noticed a big surge in CS:GO tournaments, any reason why? Dota, LoL and Hearthstone used to be the top user viewed Twitch streams and now most nights I see CS:GO is up there and Dota and Hearthstone have fallen a spot or 2.

    Reply

    • CongoKyle

      July 16, 2015 at 14:38

      Just the influx of tournaments, how close the competitive scene is and how easy it is to follow. It’s a great game to get into if you’re new to eSports because it’s basically “run around and shoot shit”

      Reply

      • Matthew Holliday

        July 16, 2015 at 15:26

        the same could be said for dota if we go back two or three years though.
        CS:GO is about balance, dota 2 is about imbalance.

        Reply

      • Guild

        July 17, 2015 at 08:53

        But for an old title? Feels like it’s had a sudden rebirth and people are either going back to it or jumping into it for the 1st time.

        Reply

      • SargonTheBatpandaOfTI5

        July 19, 2015 at 11:04

        *misses Quake 3

        Reply

  6. RinceThis

    July 16, 2015 at 09:47

    It’s the same stuff over and over again. BORING Trololol

    Reply

    • Hammersteyn

      July 17, 2015 at 09:53

      XD

      Reply

  7. WitWolfy

    July 16, 2015 at 09:48

    Dota 2 is dead??? Fudge, thats basically all my friends EVER talk about. You’ll begin taking about house hunting or life in general and before I know it, it evolved in discussing of doing an ULTI with Slark. FML…

    Reply

  8. RinceThis

    July 16, 2015 at 09:51

    Yeah, not sure you can say it’s dead though, I mean that’s 16 million souls of reason it isn’t. Sadly. If it was, I might get my younger brother back.

    Reply

    • CongoKyle

      July 16, 2015 at 14:39

      Yeah, like I said it’s my personal opinion and a few personalities agree. A lot of the guys who were there at the start have burnt out and moved on.

      Reply

      • cyka

        July 16, 2015 at 20:19

        How is a fact down to opinion you stupid fuck?
        “The game is bad and I don’t like it” is an opinion.
        “The game is dead” is stating it like its a fact and you have something to back it up. All you have to present as evidence is compendium sales going down at certain points when in reality the prizepool has increased by 50% from last year and still going and we are talking about millions of dollars here not chump change.

        In reality the payerbase,viewership and prizepools are all growing and have never really stopped growing. Just because you’re bad at the game and failed miserably to make your mark as a caster doesn’t make the game dead.

        Reply

        • Sageville

          July 17, 2015 at 14:15

          Is that insult really necessary?

          Do you struggle to make your point without it?

          Reply

          • cyka

            July 17, 2015 at 16:30

            Thick skulls require harder language 🙂

          • Hammersteyn

            July 17, 2015 at 17:43

            Telling people to kill themselves is a horrid thing to say.

          • SargonTheBatpandaOfTI5

            July 19, 2015 at 11:04

            His guest handle is “cyka”

            What’d we expect? Really? 😛

          • SargonTheBatpandaOfTI5

            July 19, 2015 at 11:04

            Technically there is no evidence that people with lower IQs (or poor intellect – however you’d prefer to measure it) have thicker skull plates. You should get some facts, yo, and educate yourself.

          • Sageville

            July 20, 2015 at 14:02

            Logic of the weak.

        • CongoKyle

          July 17, 2015 at 17:00

          Stay mad

          Reply

          • cyka

            July 17, 2015 at 17:40

            Wow got me! Excellent point Mr.Writer. You’re wit and eloquence have won me over. Allow me to respond in kind.

            Kill yourself.

      • cyka

        August 11, 2015 at 02:34

        Hey retard, still think Dota is on the decline? hahaha

        Did you happen to catch The International at all?

        Reply

        • Hammersteyn

          August 11, 2015 at 07:47

          Oh my, you called him retard, you must be right and have brought your point across only as a mature adult can. Plus with the power of anonymity you have truly shown the size of your balls to a writer who dare aired his own opinion.

          Hopefully we will see you in the International next year. Why I think you and your clan of keyboard warriors can really show them what for. Keep up Dotas good name, people like you are a shining ambassador for such a welcoming community. Stay classy.

          Reply

    • Timmy Jackson

      July 16, 2015 at 21:01

      that’s how he’s trying to be relevant. never heard of this site or of this guy and now I have good reasons to avoid both.

      Reply

      • Guild

        July 17, 2015 at 10:53

        Perfect, don’t think you’d fit to well in here. Bye

        Reply

      • Sageville

        July 17, 2015 at 14:15

        BYE!

        Reply

  9. Razr Nation

    July 16, 2015 at 20:24

    Dota 2 is not dead and won’t be dead anytime soon. Get your facts straight and do some research before writing stuff out of your ass. I guess working at Lazygamer.net really fits your writing style.

    Reply

    • Hammersteyn

      July 17, 2015 at 10:17

      It’s not facts it’s an prediction and comparison piece with colorful graphs included. But thanks for highlighting again how friendly the DOTA community is. Maybe we can play together sometime, though I’ve been accused of being a noob and a feeder. Also my moms a whore apparently, though I’m not sure if I can trust the outbursts of some screaming kid that’s obviously not yet old enough to drive

      Reply

      • Razr Nation

        July 17, 2015 at 11:11

        Yes, the DOTA community is full of toxic people, just like any other online game you can find around. Also, the graphs and stuff he mentions are supporting the first part of the article, not the last section (which is the one I am discussing). I have been a journalist for almost five years now, so don’t try to outsmart me. Oh, and we can play anyday you want: I don’t flame, insult or treat people in any negative way.

        Reply

        • Hammersteyn

          July 17, 2015 at 11:24

          A journalist? O_o I’m way out of my depth here, I’ve yet to master using a phrase like “writing stuff out of your ass” It starts with “I must preface this with the fact that this is my personal opinion, but I’m sure some might feel the same way” It’s his personal opinion. Bush organized 911. That’s my opinion.

          Reply

          • Razr Nation

            July 17, 2015 at 11:29

            Well, then you have to adapt the writing style to make sure every sentence is read as an opinion, and not as a verified fact. I admit that I might have used the wrong language to express my criticism towards the article (for which I apologize) but my point still stands.

          • cyka

            July 17, 2015 at 13:26

            The United States is a 3rd world country. You disagree? Well too bad, its my opinion.

            You see how that works? If you don’t back a statement up with relevant facts it makes it a stupid opinion. The fact that you need to be explained something like that says a lot about this shitty website.

            The whole premise of the “article” is that Dota is on the decline due to compendium sales when in reality the prize pool has increased by 50% from last year. That’s 5 MILLION DOLLARS and still going! GG, dead game somebody revive it please.

            The player base has never stopped growing, the number of tournaments are virtually endless. In fact the biggest problem Dota faced in the last year is a burnout among top players because there were too many fucking tournaments! You would know that if you had done your research and actually wanted to write an informative article. But nope, this place is a clickbait dumpster hole that doesn’t give a shit about facts. Who needs them when you have opinions.

            Also, please don’t play Dota, as with any huge player base it has enough idiots. Really doesn’t need more of them like you. You’re a noob feeder and your mom’s a whore! Sorry no offense, just my opinion.

          • Hammersteyn

            July 17, 2015 at 13:44

            And you’re entitled to your opinion. I differ from it obviously but
            that’s what makes the world an interesting place. How boring would it
            be if we just all conformed to the same idea? He actually mentions the player burnout. Maybe you missed it? Or maye you only toll comment sections? Normally when a DOTA article goes up the first thing people do is rage in the comment section, like you did, by calling the author a stupid fuck. Sure it’s your opinion, but it’s in no way an effective method to get your point across. Also if I want to play Dota I will. Maybe I thrive in the abuse or maybe I enjoy ruining the experience for other people, just like you ruin the comment section with toxicity

          • cyka

            July 17, 2015 at 16:20

            If it happens as often as you seem to imply it does have you considered that maybe your authors are indeed stupid fucks and everyone isn’t out to call them stupid fucks just for the sake of it?

            Stupid fuck.

          • Hammersteyn

            July 17, 2015 at 17:41

            It happens as often because as soon as someone has an opinion other than positive regarding DOTA people like you climb out of the wood work to swear and act like butt hurt asshats over an opinion piece which is hilarious to say the least. DOTA may be growing, but it’s filled with angry, bitter, oversensitive fanboys and I’d rather stop gaming than be associated with the DOTA culture.

          • cyka

            July 17, 2015 at 18:34

            >DOTA may be growing

            So this opinion piece is stupid then isn’t it?

            Lets be clear I know more about Dota then any of you asshats here. No, its not a perfect game by any means and has its flaws like any other game and I could write pages about whats wrong with it. There are good opinion pieces and bad ones. Guess which category this falls under. I can appreciate a good critique when I see one but this is not one of them. Uninformed clickbait garbage is what it is.

          • Hammersteyn

            July 18, 2015 at 09:04

            This biggest problem with the game lies with most of the people who play it.

          • cyka

            July 19, 2015 at 00:14

            Consequences of having a player base in the millions, being free to play and being hard as balls to learn.

            Another consequence of its popularity is that trashcan writers will write poor, uninformed and badly sourced articles often with a clickbait title to garner attention and whine about how toxic the player base is when called out.

          • Hammersteyn

            July 20, 2015 at 08:06

            The graphs are badly sourced? Also he didn’t need to whine about toxic players. You and a few other people did a fine job demonstrating it on your own in the comment section
            http://i.memeful.com/media/post/oMJ28xM_700wa_0.gif

          • cyka

            July 20, 2015 at 08:15

            Yes they are. Graphs don’t mean shit if you interpret them to draw the wrong conclusions. At the end of the day the prize pool still grew over 50% from last year and is still going. So all the points the ‘writer’ made are worthless.

          • Hammersteyn

            July 20, 2015 at 08:24

            You must be blind or don’t under stand graphs. The very fist graph confirms that the 2015 grew more than 2014

          • cyka

            July 20, 2015 at 08:33

            It still grew you and we’re talking about millions of dollars here not chump change. You must be brain dead if you think a 50%+ increase from the previous year means a game is declining and needs reviving which is what the writer is trying to say. The graphs are a bad source to support that particular claim.

          • Hammersteyn

            July 20, 2015 at 08:51

            Well, here’s hoping DOTA lives forever. At least it keeps you people out of other games.

          • cyka

            July 20, 2015 at 15:47

            That’s an excellent point . The whole crux of your argument defending this piece of shit article is “Waaah its an opinion, the Dota community so bad , waaaaaah”

            Here’s to hoping this parasitic shit hole goes broke.

            Morons like yourself and the writer of the article do a really good job speeding that process up so thanks for that!

          • Hammersteyn

            July 20, 2015 at 16:04

            LOL you’re such a keyboard warrior

          • SargonTheBatpandaOfTI5

            July 19, 2015 at 11:00

            Agreed.

          • SargonTheBatpandaOfTI5

            July 19, 2015 at 11:00

            Guest ‘Cyka’ knows more about dota than any asshat here. Way to stand firm, broheim. Way to show ’em. Couldn’t even link a real name or dota nick to this petulant tantrum.

          • Sageville

            July 17, 2015 at 14:22

            You aren’t very good at this are you?

          • Guild

            July 17, 2015 at 14:39

            Looks like we have a special cupcake here 🙂

          • Hammersteyn

            July 17, 2015 at 17:42

            Made with sour dough and too much salt.

          • Hammersteyn

            July 17, 2015 at 17:42

            I give him a D for Dota

          • Misha Barnett

            July 20, 2015 at 03:54

            Wow, the fanboys defending this writer are many…. The three of you responded to every comment! AHAHAHA

            He wrote an awful article, just accept it. I am not going to fight with you fanboys I’ll just quote the article:

            “I must preface this with the fact that this is my personal opinion, but
            I’m sure some might feel the same way. It’s no secret that Dota 2 has
            fallen off the top of the eSports list in the past few years.”

            lol.

          • Hammersteyn

            July 20, 2015 at 08:04

            And you Dota fanboys cant handle someone giving his opinion on Dota if it’s not praise worthy.

          • cyka

            August 10, 2015 at 21:06

            Did you happen to catch TI5 mate? Do you still think your dumb fuck writers opinion is valid? hahahahahaha

          • Hammersteyn

            August 11, 2015 at 08:04

            Oh my, try cutting sown on your sugar intake. No I missed TI5 because I was playing Witcher 3, had a few braais this weekend and saw a horrible Springbok game. In fact I’d rather watch ISIS behead people online as I truly believe that their community is more welcoming and much less abusive than yours.

          • SargonTheBatpandaOfTI5

            July 19, 2015 at 10:59

            I find this opinion stupid.

    • Guild

      July 17, 2015 at 10:52

      Maybe you need to learn to read. He states it’s his opinion.

      Reply

      • Razr Nation

        July 17, 2015 at 11:19

        I’m sorry but “It’s no secret that Dota 2 has fallen off the top of the esports list in the past few years” is not an opinion. He is making a statement of fact, and as such it needs one or more sources to support it. A good journalist wouldn’t need to have this explained to them.

        Reply

        • Guild

          July 17, 2015 at 14:38

          I agree with you, it should have been written differently. But I also see the statement as it’s not the number 1 eSport but still up there with the best of them. It doesn’t take anything away from the game or elude to the rage from Dota fanbois.

          Reply

          • Razr Nation

            July 17, 2015 at 15:42

            I think that the main issue here is that the last section takes a false premise and builds upon it. The title alone establishes the fact that Dota is dead, which is immediately false. Dota is not dead. The game can certainly not be in the same position it was a year ago but saying it’s dead is either an inaccurate assessment or a misuse of terminology. The $16 million prize pool for TI5, as well as all the premier tournaments held during 2015 so far, are proof enough.

            Also, assuming that such revival of the game will be a consecuence of this huge prize pool, instead of the cause, is also a problem. TI5 has such a huge prize pool because the game is heatlhy, not the other way around. I am 100% certain that we wouldn’t see this many tournaments and prize pools had the competitive scene be dead as that paragraph implies. In the end, I might be a bit too perfectionist when it comes to this kind of articles, but I do think that being factually correct is something good in most situations 🙂

          • cyka

            July 17, 2015 at 16:47

            >I agree with you, it should have been written differently

            No shit it should have been written differently Einstein. Its plain wrong and that’s what everyone here is saying and you autists hide behind “Well its just his opnion” which is equally stupid.

    • SargonTheBatpandaOfTI5

      July 19, 2015 at 10:58

      No one said it was dead. Sheeeeeeesh. Someone fetch the monocle!

      Reply

  10. george appleton

    July 16, 2015 at 20:44

    Dota dying? Lol you’re high mate, look at the numbers. League dying, yes now that is the case. CS GO is growing the fastest currently though

    Reply

  11. Timmy Jackson

    July 16, 2015 at 20:58

    you’re so fucking dumb

    Reply

    • Hammersteyn

      July 17, 2015 at 10:13

      And you’re a big man name calling someone for expressing their opinion. I think the DOTA community is full of toxic keyboard warriors who are salty that they are never gonna be able to compete in The International for a crack at becoming a millionaire. So keep pumping cash into those compendiums.

      Reply

      • SargonTheBatpandaOfTI5

        July 19, 2015 at 11:18

        ^This

        Reply

    • Sageville

      July 17, 2015 at 11:50

      You went full asshat Timmah, never go full asshat.

      Reply

    • SargonTheBatpandaOfTI5

      July 19, 2015 at 10:54

      Much hate in you young one. The path to the dark side, this is.

      Reply

  12. Misha Barnett

    July 16, 2015 at 22:57

    “It’s no secret that Dota 2 has fallen off the top of the eSports list in the past few years.”

    How do you work for a gaming website and write something as stupid as this? You didn’t even have time to google anything? Jan-June 2013 Dota 2 averaged about 150k-200k concurrent players a day. In 2015 Dota 2 it averaged around 600k or more a day with a peak of over a million concurrent players in a day.

    http://www.esportsearnings.com/tournaments

    Dota 2 prizepools have grown exponentially every year. Especially after TI4.. Dota 2 had a $3 million tournament in february of THIS YEAR called DAC, which outside The Internationals, is the biggest tournament prize pool in esports history.

    Also, have you even heard of Dota: Reborn? Do you even game at all? lol

    I am embarrassed for you.

    Reply

    • SargonTheBatpandaOfTI5

      July 19, 2015 at 10:53

      Wow. Just wow.

      Reply

  13. Sageville

    July 17, 2015 at 14:26

    The toxicity of some people that these DOTA articles attract, eish!

    Reply

    • SargonTheBatpandaOfTI5

      July 19, 2015 at 11:14

      There should be a huge bold “PERSPECTIVES FROM THOSE IN THE KNOW” or “Discussion Piece” or a good old fashioned “Opinion Piece” under the heading and the author’s name. Because while we few sentient and tolerant human beings are clearly aware that Congo is voicing an opinion (that we’re certainly allowed to disagree with) there is absolutely no reason to be bullish hooligans in response. Gods above and below… what is this? Liverpool v Man Utd? Where is your REASON, ye Gods? Did Western Philosophy teach you people NOTHING?

      Reply

  14. Lucas

    July 18, 2015 at 14:15

    >revive dota 2
    literally the most played game on steam

    Reply

    • SargonTheBatpandaOfTI5

      July 19, 2015 at 11:10

      Well yeah.

      Valve = DotA 2
      Valve = Steam

      All Praise Lord Gaben.

      Reply

  15. SargonTheBatpandaOfTI5

    July 19, 2015 at 11:16

    Thanks Congo for the interesting piece. While I may disagree, I appreciate you taking the time to voice your opinion and concern about the state of the dota 2 nation as it currently stands, especially since I do spend a ton of my time playing the game. Pity there are far too few human beings commenting on this article and far too many bullish trolls!

    Reply

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